In 1999, at the peak of the dot-com frenzy, a whimsical tale emerged about a chimpanzee named Raven who supposedly “beat” 6,000 Wall Street brokers by throwing darts at a stock list. The story, often attributed to a Guardian experiment, claims the chimp’s random picks earned a mythical 213% return, landing her in 22nd place among traders. While the anecdote is widely shared, it’s more urban legend than verified fact—but it reveals a hilarious truth about market randomness.
Let’s untangle reality from fiction. The Guardian did run a stock-picking experiment in 1999, but it involved human journalists, not chimpanzees. The real inspiration for the chimp myth comes from a 1970s thought experiment by economist Burton Malkiel, who argued a “blindfolded monkey” could match professional stock pickers. The Wall Street Journal later turned this into a recurring contest where darts thrown at a stock list competed against expert picks. Sometimes, the darts won.
So where did Raven the chimp come from? The story seems to be a mash-up of these experiments, spiced up with primate flair. While no credible records confirm a chimp named Raven participated, the metaphor stuck because it’s too good not to love. Imagine a six-year-old chimp, flinging darts while brokers in Armani suits sweat over spreadsheets. The image alone is worth a million memes.
The deeper truth? Active stock picking is notoriously hard to beat the market consistently. Studies show over 90% of professional fund managers fail to outperform index funds long-term. In 2012, a Swedish researcher let a real monkey, Ola the capuchin, pick stocks by tapping a screen. After a year, Ola’s portfolio beat 94% of human-managed funds. His secret? Pure randomness—and no emotional attachment to tech bubbles.
The 1999 Guardian experiment, sans chimp, did highlight this chaos. Journalists randomly selected stocks from the S&P 500, and their “portfolio” briefly outperformed many brokers. Why? During the dot-com bubble, hype—not logic—drove markets. A chimp’s random picks would’ve avoided overvalued tech stocks, dodging the eventual crash. Meanwhile, brokers, convinced they could outsmart the cycle, rode it straight into the ground.
Does this mean anyone can trade stocks with darts? Not quite. The lesson isn’t that skill doesn’t matter—it’s that markets are unpredictable, and luck plays a bigger role than Wall Street admits. Raven’s fictional 213% return? Even a broken clock is right twice a day. In 1999, any random portfolio heavy on tech stocks would’ve soared… until it crashed.
So, while Raven the stock-picking chimp is likely a fable, her legacy endures. The story mocks Wall Street’s self-importance and reminds us that simplicity—like index funds—often triumphs over complexity. Next time someone brags about their portfolio, ask if they’d fare better than a hypothetical chimp. Spoiler: They might not. And if you ever meet Raven, tell her to short crypto while she’s at it. Even monkeys know bubbles pop.
